Researchers from SALIENSEAS partner MET Norway recently published in Geophysical Research Letters. The article is open access and can be found here.
An Intercomparison of Verification Scores for Evaluating the Sea Ice Edge Position in Seasonal Forecasts
There is a growing interest for commercial activities in the Arctic due to sea ice decline. However, sea ice remains one of the major challenges for navigating in the Arctic ocean, and sea ice forecasts are therefore necessary to reduce the risks associated with Arctic navigation. In order to assess the reliability of sea ice forecasts, several methods have recently been suggested for evaluating the spatial distribution of sea ice. In this study, the performances of new seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts have been evaluated using three verification methods. These methods have been compared in order to identify their characteristics, as well as their strenghts and weaknesses. It has been shown that the methods have different sensitivities to the presence of remote isolated ice patches, and that one of them is not suitable for comparing the forecast skill between different seasons.